🍁Happy Sunday, dear readers, and welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.

We were treated to a flurry of new federal polls last week, and while the numbers differed considerably from one another — especially on where the Conservatives currently stand — the overall trend wasn’t particularly friendly to Pierre Poilievre’s CPC.

We always urge caution with “summer polling,” but the latest numbers suggest Poilievre and his MPs may be anxious to get back to Ottawa. So far, time away from the theatre of the House of Commons hasn’t done their polling numbers any favours.

Here below are the latest federal polls from active firms over the past 30 days. Liberal support among decided and leaning voters ranges from 40% with Angus Reid to 47% with Research Co.

The Conservative range is even wider: from just 27% with Research Co. and EKOS to 36% with Angus Reid.

The disagreement between pollsters is therefore notable — from a single-digit lead to an advantage of 15+ points for the Liberals — but notice what they are mostly disagreeing about: the size of the Liberal lead, not whether there is one.

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Here is the 338Canada “bullseye chart,” showing the latest Liberal and Conservative numbers compared with the 338Canada weighted polling average.

The much-awaited monthly Léger poll, released last week, showed mostly steady numbers since June: 46% for the Liberals (-2), 34% for the Conservatives (unchanged) and 8% for the NDP (+2).

Léger did measure some erosion in government approval since the spring, but the numbers remain — for now — quite favourable for Mark Carney and the Liberals. According to Léger’s latest, 55% approve of the federal government’s performance, against 38% who disapprove, for a net approval rating of +17.

One data point stands out from this morning’s Abacus Data poll: the possibility that the Liberals have lost significant ground in Quebec to the Bloc Québécois.

Abacus measured Liberal support at 37% in Quebec, with the Bloc close behind at 35%.

Could Abacus have caught the beginning of a genuine shift in Quebec? It’s certainly possible. But with a Quebec subsample of n=298 respondents — and every other recent poll showing a substantially larger Liberal lead — we need more evidence before calling it a trend.

Here below are the latest federal polls in Quebec, including a large-sample Quebec-only poll from Synopsis Recherche that measured a 16-point Liberal lead in the province.

For now, Abacus stands alone in showing such a tight Liberal-Bloc race. We will keep a close eye on Quebec numbers in the coming days to see whether the firm caught an early trend — or merely statistical noise.

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Let us now update the 338Canada federal projections.

Based on the latest polling, the Liberals stand, on average, close to their 2025 election result in popular support, while the Conservatives have slipped to their lowest level in the 338Canada tracker since December 2022 — three months into Poilievre’s leadership.

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The polls over the last few weeks have not been kind to the Conservatives, as multiple surveys have put the party under the psychologically important threshold of 30%.

What does this mean for Pierre Poilievre, and could some upcoming by-elections be points of no return for his leadership?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the plethora of recent polls that have been published and what they say for Mark Carney and Avi Lewis, as well as the Conservative leader.

We also discuss a trio of new polls out of Quebec that point to an unpredictable provincial election, as well as two new polls out of Ontario that have better news for Doug Ford ahead of three by-elections.

Then, we dive into the mailbag to answer some questions, including what odds we’d give an early election call.

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You listen to the new episode on YouTube:

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We were treated to a trio of federal polls this morning, all of which could give the current Conservative leadership team nightmares.

The latest—and always much-awaited—Léger poll measures Liberal support at 46% nationally, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives at 34%.

That 34%, incidentally, is essentially where Andrew Scheer in 2019 and Erin O’Toole in 2021 led the CPC in their respective general elections.

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In short: not even close to enough to remain competitive with the Liberals at their current level of support, especially with the NDP still stuck at 8% in this poll and the low double digits in many recent ones.

Taken on their own, Léger’s numbers would point to a potentially crushing Liberal majority:

As for government approval, Léger sees Carney’s numbers sliding somewhat since June, but still comfortably in positive territory. According to the latest poll, 55% approve of the Carney government, compared with 38% who disapprove.

That gives the government a net approval rating of +17, down five points since June. Here is Léger’s government approval tracker since last fall:

See Léger’s numbers here.

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Léger was not alone this morning.

The latest poll from Research Co. finds an even wider, 20-point chasm between the Liberals and Conservatives:

Research Co. also has Mark Carney leading Pierre Poilievre by 23 points on its preferred prime minister metric:

See Research Co.’s complete numbers here.

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Finally, the latest Liaison Strategies tracker measures a 13-point Liberal lead, with the LPC at 44% and the CPC at 31%.

See Liaison’s latest numbers here.

Three polls, three double-digit Liberal leads.

More to come this week.

Thank you to all 338Canada subscribers for your support.🍁❤️

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🍁Happy Monday morning, dear readers,

Canada's latest political fundraising reports offer another glimpse at the financial strength of the country's major parties—and, in a few cases, suggest the landscape may be shifting.

Here’s how the federal parties, along with their provincial counterparts in Alberta and British Columbia, performed during the second quarter of 2026.

Federal: Liberals Close the Gap

At the federal level, the Conservatives remain Canada's fundraising champions, but their advantage over the Liberals has narrowed considerably since last year's election.

The Conservatives raised $5.05 million during the second quarter, down from more than $6 million at the end of 2025. The Liberals, meanwhile, brought in $4.36 million, leaving less than $700,000 between the two parties.

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🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

The Conservatives will soon lose their eighth MP of this Parliament. Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations MP Larry Brock announced that he would step down in September.

Since the Conservatives’ 2025 defeat against the Carney Liberals, four CPC MPs have crossed the floor and join the Liberals — Chris d’Entremont (Acadie—Annapolis) , Michael Ma (Markham—Unionville), Matt Jeneroux (Edmonton Riverbend) and Marilyn Gladu (Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong).

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord CPC MP Richard Martel accepted Carney’s invitation to join the Senate in July. Saskatchewan MP Cathy Wagantall (Yorkton—Melville) and now Larry Brock have announced their intentions to step down this fall.

And, of course, Damien Kurek vacated his seat of Battle River—Crowfoot so that CPC leader Pierre Poilievre could return to the House after Poilievre’s defeat in his longtime riding of Carleton in the 2025 general election.

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While our immediate by-election focus will be on the trio of August 31 contests—including the closely fought Chicoutimi—Le Fjord—a case could be made that the upcoming Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations by-election will be even more important for the Conservatives in the short term.

In 2025, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord was a tight three-way race, with only three points separating first and third place. With Martel gone, it would hardly be a shock to see the Conservatives lose Chicoutimi—Le Fjord. (To which party? That remains anybody’s guess.)

But Brantford? Losing such a reliable Conservative seat in small-city and rural Ontario would be a far more troubling sign for the current CPC leadership.

The last time the Conservatives failed to win this riding—or an earlier version of it—was in 2006, when the Liberals eked out a one-point victory. Conservatives have won it comfortably ever since: in 2008, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2021 and 2025. Last year, Brock received more than 52% of the vote, finishing 11 points ahead of his Liberal challenger.

As for Pierre Poilievre, the numbers continue to show how dramatically his star has faded since Carney took over the Liberals 18 months ago. Yet the Conservative voter base still appears firmly behind him.

In July, the Angus Reid Institute found that 33% of Canadians held a favourable impression of Poilievre, compared with 60% who viewed him unfavourably—a net favourability rating of -27. Among 2025 Conservative voters, however, 76% viewed Poilievre favourably and only 20% unfavourably, for a net score of +56.

In last week’s Nanos Research Preferred Prime Minister tracker (fielded July 10–31, 2026), Poilievre trailed Carney by 38 points—the widest gap between the two since Carney entered federal politics.

Let’s go over the latest polls and update the federal projections.

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Quebec is headed for an election in October, and things are tightening. A Parti Québécois victory would almost certainly reopen the constitutional question. While the party has moderated some of its rhetoric, its raison d’être remains Quebec independence, making the next election consequential well beyond provincial politics.

According to the latest Quebec poll from Pallas Data, the PQ holds the lead with 31 percent of support among decided and leaning voters across the province, four points ahead of the Quebec Liberal Party, which stands at 27 percent. Both parties are up two points from Pallas Data’s previous poll in June—a change that falls well within the poll’s margin of error.

Read the full column in The Walrus here.

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🍁Happy Thursday, dear 338Canada readers,

The Parti Québécois has been leading in voting intentions in Quebec since the fall of 2023. Although the numbers could still change during the upcoming provincial campaign, the party remains the clear favorite to win at least a plurality of seats if current trends continue (see the updated 338 Quebec projections here).

However, support for sovereignty is still not growing, according to the results of the most recent Quebec poll by Pallas Data commissioned by 338Canada.

Here is the wording of the question, which has been the same in all Quebec polls from Pallas since 2023:

“If a referendum were held on Quebec’s sovereignty, would you vote for or against Quebec’s sovereignty?”

Province-wide, 29% of respondents say they would vote in favor of Quebec sovereignty if a referendum were held—a statistically significant drop of four points since the previous Pallas poll back in June.

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🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

Happy August long weekend to readers from many places in Canada. Today’s post will be brief as I, too, try to enjoy the last days of this summer hiatus—before the rhythm picks up this month. The Quebec general election and Alberta referendum will for sure keep us busy.

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Here are the federal latest polls from active firms in the past 30 days:

As you can see, there is a bit of a spread. We discussed it earlier this week in this post.

It was also a topic of discussion with my podcast partner in last week’s episode of The Numbers:

Here are the updated 338Canada weighted averages:

The Liberals slipped below the 200-seat mark for the first time in months, but still hold a commanding lead in the seat projection with an average of 197 seats, against 106 for the Conservatives.

The Bloc Québécois averages 24 seats and the NDP ,14.

Enjoy August, dear readers. We will be back at full rhythm soon.

Thanks, as always, to all subscribers who make 338Canada possible.🍁❤️

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🍁Take advantage of our Summer 2026 Special here.

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New polls published over the last week agree that the Liberals are ahead — but are they ahead by a little, or by a lot?

This week on The Numbers, we try to make some sense of differing poll numbers that aren’t all good news for Mark Carney (though they are mostly bad news for Pierre Poilievre).

We also discuss the calling of three by-elections in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, Beaches—East York and North Vancouver—Capilano.

Plus, there’s a new poll out of Ontario that has Doug Ford frowning, and Philippe is back with The Quiz!

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You can watch on YouTube:

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Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

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A new Léger poll conducted after Donald Trump's latest tariffs on Canadian goods finds Canadians remain deeply concerned about the economic consequences of the trade dispute. At the same time, a majority still express confidence in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s ability to negotiate the best possible outcome for Canada, while favouring retaliation over additional concessions.

Fielded from July 25 to 27, 2026, immediately after President Donald Trump’s surprise tariff announcement, this Léger poll asked its panel how closely they are following the news about trade relations between Canada and the United States: Two-thirds (68%) said they were following closely or somewhat closely, while 30% admitted to not following closely or at all the trade news.

Whether respondents are paying attention to the trade dispute may seem like a secondary finding — a mere measure of awareness. But, as the rest of the survey shows, attention to the issue is strongly associated with confidence in the federal government.

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Léger then asked its panel:

How much confidence do you have in Prime Minister Mark Carney to achieve the best possible outcome for Canada in trade negotiations with the United States?

Nationally, 53% of respondents reported having “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in the prime minister to reach a fair agreement in these trade negotiations, while 38% sided with “not very much” confidence or “none at all”.

The results translate into a net confidence score of +15—a solid number, though not overwhelming.

Regionally, confidence is strongest in Atlantic Canada (64%), while Quebec (54%), British Columbia (54%) and Ontario (53%) all cluster around the national average.

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However, it is not the regional differences that stand out in this table. Léger added to its report the crosstabs of respondents who said they were and weren’t following the news closely, and the difference is much starker than the regionals.

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The weekly Nanos Research tracker, released Tuesday morning, was a brutal one for the Conservatives—and more specifically for CPC leader Pierre Poilievre, whose score on the Preferred Prime Minister metric took a significant dive.

Then on Wednesday, the Angus Reid Institute released its latest federal numbers. While the poll painted a much more competitive race than most firms have in recent months, it once again found Pierre Poilievre posting weak personal numbers.

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With field dates spanning July 3 to 21, 2026, Nanos measured Liberal support at 45% nationally, close to the party's current 338Canada weighted average, but just 30% for the Conservatives (29.5% in Nanos' report). Those numbers would translate into a commanding Liberal majority were they replicated in an election.

By contrast, the Angus Reid Institute sees a near statistical tie, with the Liberals at 40% and the Conservatives at 36%.

Both firms place the NDP at 13% nationally—roughly double the party's share of the vote in the 2025 federal election.

The Nanos regional breakdown is paywalled and not published here, but with such national numbers, one wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the regionals were favourable to the red team pretty much everywhere.

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Applying the Angus Reid numbers alone to the 338Canada model produces an average projection of 165 Liberal seats—enough to remain the largest party, but short of a majority.

It would be tempting to dismiss these differences as "summer polling." A look at each firm's longer-term record, however, suggests modest and consistent house effects instead.

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🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

A surprise announcement from the PMO changed this morning's plans. Prime Minister Mark Carney has called three federal by-elections for August 31, including one that could become the most closely watched race of the summer.

We'll begin there before turning to the latest chapter in the never-ending Canada–U.S. trade saga.

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All eyes on Chicoutimi

The Prime Minister's Office published a brief press release this morning announcing three federal by-elections will be held on August 31 in the ridings of North Vancouver—Capilano, Beaches—East York, and Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.

Barring a dramatic reversal of fortune over the next month—that is, a sharp decline in Liberal support—the Liberals should be in a comfortable position to retain North Vancouver—Capilano and Beaches—East York.

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, however, will almost certainly be the one to watch.

In the 2025 federal election, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord produced one of the closest races in the country, with just three points separating first from third place. Conservative MP Richard Martel held the seat with 34% of the vote, while both the Bloc Québécois and Liberals finished close behind at 31% apiece.

Current data continue to point toward another razor-thin three-way contest between the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc Québécois. While the Conservatives could be hurt by Martel's departure—he was appointed to the Senate earlier this month—voters in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord have shown little long-term loyalty to any single party in this century.

Although the riding boundaries have evolved over the years, voters here have elected Liberal, Conservative, Bloc and NDP MPs since the 2000 federal election.

On Friday, TVA Nouvelles published a Bloc-commissioned Pallas Data poll of the riding conducted July 18 (n=317). It showed a statistical three-way tie: Bloc 30%, Liberals 28%, Conservatives 26%, with 13% of respondents still undecided.

Here below is the latest 338Canada projection in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord:

Because Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is an overwhelmingly francophone riding, it could provide another useful test of Liberal support in francophone Quebec, only a few months after the LPC's by-election victory in Terrebonne.

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An otherwise relatively quiet political summer has been rocked again by U.S. President Donald Trump, as he is set to impose a new round of tariffs on Canada.

How might another tussle with the United States impact the polling numbers, which seemed to suggest the Liberals undergoing a modest softening in their support?

This week on The Numbers, Eric and Philippe discuss the potential impact of another tariff fight on Mark Carney’s poll numbers. We also break down the results of a provincial by-election in Manitoba that has more good news for Premier Wab Kinew, and chat about some new polls on the popularity of premiers David Eby and Danielle Smith.

We then answer some member questions from the mailbag, with the full segment available exclusively to Patreon members.

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You can watch the episode on YouTube:

You may also listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

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Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

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“Without us there’s no way they can survive,” said Trump from the Oval Office on Tuesday.

Donald Trump’s latest threats of new tariffs against Canada have once again injected uncertainty into Canada-U.S. relations. If history is any guide, however, the political consequences north of the border may not unfold the way the U.S. Administration hopes.

Since Trump’s return to the White House in January 2025, Canadians have consistently rallied behind their federal government whenever relations with Washington have deteriorated. That trend first became apparent during Justin Trudeau’s final weeks as prime minister—and it has continued under Mark Carney.

For nearly three years, Trudeau’s government experienced one of the longest and deepest declines of public approval in recent Canadian history. Net approval steadily deteriorated from slightly negative territory in 2022 to a net -45 in the aggregate by late 2024.

Then the trend abruptly reversed.

As Trump began threatening sweeping tariffs, questioning Canada’s sovereignty, and repeatedly referring to the country as a potential “51st state,” Canadians’ evaluation of their federal government changed dramatically.

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Today, the Carney government enjoys a healthy +21 net approval rating in the 338Canada government approval tracker, with 55% of Canadians approving of its performance and 34% disapproving (on average).

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🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

As many voters across Canada may be taking their usual July hiatus from politics, federal numbers show notable stability across the board.

Mark Carney's Liberals still hold a significant advantage over their Conservative rivals and government approval remains at enviable levels, as national attention will soon turn to Quebec and Alberta, where voters face a provincial election and a referendum this fall.

Three new national polls were released last week, alongside several issue-based surveys. On Friday, I broke down the latest Angus Reid Institute poll on Canadians' views of two proposed pipeline projects. You can read it here.

Let us begin with the latest survey from Abacus Data, which was released this morning.

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Abacus: Liberals +6

Abacus Data's latest survey shows no major movement on the federal front, although it continues to depict a somewhat closer race than most other recent polls. The Liberals remain in first place at 43%, six points ahead of the Conservatives at 37%. The NDP sits in a distant third at 9%.

Regionally, Abacus sees more of the same across the board, with some tightening in Ontario where the Liberals hold a 7-point lead. Two weeks ago, Abacus had the Liberals leading by 12 points in the province. No dramatic movement just yet, but it may be worth watching whether this narrowing persists over the coming weeks.

Abacus also sees only minor movement in government approval: 52% approve (-2) and 32% disapprove (+1) — for a net +20 approval.

The chart below shows Abacus' government approval numbers since late winter. While 52% approval is the lower end of current ranges, it’s hard to look at this chart and really decipher a clear trend and not just noise.

One question worth watching over the coming months is whether the Liberals' embrace of new pipeline projects creates space for the NDP or Greens to recover support among environmentally minded voters.

So far, there is little-to-no evidence of that. Neither party has shown meaningful gains in voting intentions, and Abacus' tracking of leader impressions shows virtually no movement for NDP leader Avi Lewis.

Not only has Lewis not moved the needle for his party since March, his personal numbers have also remained completely flat. Naturally, this is not an assessment on Lewis’ leadership thus far, as that would be premature. But we continue to follow these numbers with interest, if the NDP begins winning back support from the Liberals, we would most likely also see upward movement for the leader.

Read details from Abacus here, including analysis from Abacus Data CEO .

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Nanos Research: Liberals lead by 12

The usual weekly tracker from Nanos Research has fluctuated back and forth in recent weeks — as weekly trackers do. Last week’s update, conducted between June 19 and July 10, measured Liberal support at 43%, against 31% for the Conservatives. Nanos has the NDP back in the mid-teens with 15%.

Nanos’ preferred PM tracker still has Mark Carney as the top choice of a majority of respondents with 52%, 29 points ahead of Pierre Poilievre. Avi Lewis (not shown on chart below) took 5%.

Read the public release from Nanos here.

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Liaison Strategies: A (slightly) closer race?

Finally, the two-week tracker from Liaison Strategies has also moved towards a tightening, although the movement is well within the poll’s margin of error, so prudence. Liaison puts the Liberals at 41% nationally, against 35% for the Conservatives.

Liaison’s regional breakdown shows nothing especially unusual compared to recent averages. The Liberals lead by 17 points over the Bloc in Quebec, and by 8 points over the Conservatives in Ontario. It is worth noting that Liaison has the NDP at 23% in British Columbia, down two points from last week, but still significantly higher than current averages from other pollsters.

Read Liaison’ latest release here.

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Taken together, these three polls reinforce the same picture we've been seeing for weeks. The margins differ from firm to firm, but all point to a clear Liberal lead, stable government approval, and no meaningful momentum for opposition parties.

Let’s get to this week’s 338Canada federal update.

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The political and economic conversation around energy infrastructure continues to evolve in Canada, and public opinion is shifting in favour of fossil fuels exploitation.

Fresh polling from the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) tested Canadians' support for two proposed pipeline projects linking Alberta to the Pacific Coast and to Ontario. The latter would be a 3,300-kilometre pipeline to Sarnia, ON, whose preliminary plans were unveiled last week by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford.

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The survey finds strong public support for both proposals.

Overall, do you support or oppose this proposed new pipeline from Alberta to the B.C. coast?

Nationally, 61% of respondents said they support the project, while just 21% oppose it.

Support is widespread across the country. Three-quarters of respondents in Saskatchewan (75%) and nearly as many in Alberta (73%) back the proposal. Majorities also support it in British Columbia (62%), Ontario (63%), Atlantic Canada (69%), and Manitoba (58%). Opposition in each of these regions ranges from just 14% to 24%.

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We’ll admit it when we might have been wrong — and the results of Monday’s by-election in Prince Edward Island suggest we might have been a bit too skeptical of a Narrative Research poll that put the PEI Greens in the lead.

So, we start with some mea culpas, and a discussion of whether the Cornwall—Meadowbank could be the proverbial flap of the butterfly wings that has bigger repercussions further down the line.

In addition, on this week’s episode of The Numbers we breakdown the latest federal poll numbers, as well as a new survey on how Canadians feel about the construction of new pipelines.

We also try to make sense of yet another poll out of Nova Scotia that paints yet another different portrait of the province’s political landscape.

Then, we close with a Green-hued Quiz.

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The new episode is available on YouTube:

You may also listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

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Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

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Don’t you know who I am?

For many Canadians, the answer is “no” when it comes to some of our political leaders. A new national poll from Pollara suggests that very few Canadians can name the leader of the NDP (Avi Lewis) or any cabinet ministers, while Pierre Poilievre’s recognition hasn’t shifted much over the last three years.

(Plus, many people still struggle to spell his name correctly.)

This week on The Numbers, we discuss these recognition numbers as well as the latest polls on federal voting intentions nationwide and provincial voting intentions across Atlantic Canada, where the results leave us a little lost for words.

We also breakdown Conservative MP Richard Martel’s appointment to the Senate and what it means for the upcoming by-election in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord.

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The episode is available on YouTube:

You may also listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

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Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

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🎵 Summertime, and the pollin’ is easy
🎵 Libs are jumpin', and Carney is high
🎵 Oh, the trendline's steady, and the crosstabs are holdin'
🎵 So hush, dear data nerds, don't you cry.

🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

As many Canadians disconnect from politics for the summer, the latest federal numbers suggest we have settled into a new plateau: the Liberals continue to lead in voting intentions, approval of the Carney government remains comfortably in positive territory, and the Prime Minister continues to post strong personal favourability ratings.

The latest poll from Abacus Data, released this morning, gives the Liberals an eight-point lead nationally over the Conservatives, 44% to 36%, while the NDP remains a distant third at 8%.

See all the toplines here and read the full Abacus report from here.

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The weekly trackers from Nanos Research and Liaison Strategies showed little movement. Nanos has the Liberals at 44% nationally, 14 points ahead of the Conservatives, while Liaison has a modestly closer race with the LPC at 42% and the CPC, 34%. Both trackers have the NDP in double-digits: 12% from Nanos, 13% from Liaison.

Read the latest releases from Nanos here and Liaison here.

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Here below are the latest federal polls from active firms in the past 30 days:

Liberal support ranges from 41% to 48% nationally, while Conservative support ranges from 30% to 36%.

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Here is the latest 338Canada projection, updated for July 5.

Naturally, with mostly stable numbers in the aggregate over the past week, we see no major changes in the seat projections.

The Liberals remain on top with an average projection of 208 seats, compared to 101 for the Conservatives.

The Bloc Québécois averages 20 seats in Quebec, while the NDP sits at 12 nationally, with a confidence range spanning roughly 4 to 17 seats.

July is usually a quieter month on the polling front—though perhaps not in Quebec or Alberta. Either way, we'll have more analysis next week.

📊Thanks, as always, to all subscribers who make 338Canada possible.
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With the start of another summer, it’s time to think about new beginnings — for political parties!

This week, we’re doing something we haven’t done before. Every December, we draft the party leaders we think will be heading into the sunset. Now, in this first post-Canada Day episode, we’re drafting leaders who we say will be newly installed at the helm of their parties.

The rules are simple: we draft six people onto our teams who we think will (or could) be promoted to party leader between now and next Canada Day. We have a number of provincial leadership races to choose from, but our teams have to include at least one person who we say will win a leadership race that has yet to even be called.

Who will win the first edition of the New Leader Draft? Who has the better team of hopefuls, and who should we have added to our lists? Let us know!

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You can watch the new episode on YouTube:

… or listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

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• Spotify

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Want to support our podcast and enjoy more of The Numbers?

Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

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